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With Ore. win, Obama closer to nomin.


LEXINGTON, Ky. (BP)–Democrat Barack Obama moved a step closer to the presidential nomination May 20 with an easy victory in Oregon, although a blowout loss to Hillary Clinton in Kentucky — and Clinton’s continued success among Democratic churchgoers — continued to cast doubts on Obama’s strength in a probable general election.

Obama won Oregon 58-42 percent, while Clinton enjoyed a 65-30 percent victory in Kentucky.

With his Oregon win, Obama claimed a majority of pledged, elected delegates, although he is still short of the total number of delegates when pledged delegates and superdelegates are combined. Clinton’s only hope for the nomination now is for virtually every remaining superdelegate to go her way.

Obama gave his victory speech in Des Moines, Iowa, the site of his first victory in January’s Iowa caucuses.

“[W]e have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States,” he told supporters.

Still, Clinton continued to press her case that she is more electable. Her second straight two-to-one victory — following a similar win a week earlier in West Virginia — helped her make that point.

According to exit polls, Clinton won 66 percent of weekly churchgoers in Kentucky — a category that made up 45 percent of voters there — and also won 66 percent of the Catholic vote. Those two statistics aren’t as significant as they might seem, being that she also won 60 percent of the vote in Kentucky of those who never attend church. But perhaps most concerning for the Obama campaign, 47 percent of voters in Kentucky said that in an Obama-John McCain general election match-up, they either would vote for McCain (32 percent) or stay at home (15 percent). Only 50 percent of Democratic voters in the state said they’d pull the lever for Obama. By comparison, 77 percent of party voters said they’d vote for Clinton against McCain.

To Obama’s defense, Kentucky is not a must-win state for him in a general election: It has been a solid Republican state in recent presidential elections and last voted for a Democrat in 1996. Oregon — which is a must-win state for Democrats — showed far less divide among Democrats than did Kentucky.

“[T]he stakes are high,” Clinton said, making her case. “After all this country has been through the past seven years, we have to get this right. We have to select a nominee who is best positioned to win in November, and someone who is best prepared to address the enormous challenges facing our country in these difficult times.”

Although Clinton lost handily in Oregon, she still did fairly well there among churchgoers, winning 49 percent of the Catholic vote and Protestant vote in each instance, losing to Obama in each category. Obama won in Oregon among weekly Protestant churchgoers (54-45 percent) — a category that made up only 10 percent of voters — and he easily won (61-39 percent) among those in Oregon who claim no religion (28 percent of voters).

Among other Democratic exit poll highlights:

— 51 percent of voters in Kentucky said Obama was not honest and trustworthy, and 53 percent said he does not share their values.

— 53 percent of voters in Kentucky and 32 percent of voters in Oregon said they believe Obama shares “a lot” or some of the views of controversial pastor Jeremiah Wright. Clinton won 86 percent of those voters in Kentucky and 54 percent in Oregon.

— Oregon Democrats would vote for either Clinton or Obama against McCain. Clinton would receive 85 percent of Democratic support against McCain, while Obama would get 83 percent.

— Clinton won among white voters in Kentucky (72-23 percent), while Obama won among white voters in Oregon (57-43 percent). Obama won 90 percent of the black vote in Kentucky; similar exit polling data was not available in Oregon.
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Compiled by Michael Foust, an assistant editor of Baptist Press.

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